Discussion:
If CO2 Drives Climate And Temperature...
(too old to reply)
AlleyCat
2023-12-01 04:49:23 UTC
Permalink
... why don't they match?

This is a graph of past 11,000 years of global proxies. Notice the "Model
temperature" mostly follows "CO2" ... but neither follow the actual "Proxy
temperature." Conclusion - climate models are failures at predicting
temperature.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GAOdVhCXcAA4WOR?format=png&name=900x900

Fig. 4.5 Temperature and greenhouse gases during the Holocene

a) Black curve, global temperature reconstruction as in Fig. 4 4b. b) Purple
curve, Earth's axis obliquity cycle. c) Red curve, CO> levels, as measured in
Epica Dome C (Antarctica) ice core, reported in Monnin et al. (2004). d) Blue
curve, methane levels as measured in GRIP, GISP2, and NEEM (Greenland) ice
cores as reported by Kobashi et al. (2007). Notice the great effect of the 8.2
kyr event on methane concentrations. e) Green curve, simulated global
temperature from an ensemble of three models (CCSM3, FAMOUS, and LOVECLIM) from
Liu et al. (2014), show the inability of general climate models to replicate
the Holocene general temperature downward trend. Vertical bar, 8.2 kyr BP ACE.

Major Holocene climatic periods are indicated.

=====

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Paul Aubrin
2023-12-01 14:49:52 UTC
Permalink
Post by AlleyCat
... why don't they match?
This is a graph of past 11,000 years of global proxies. Notice the "Model
temperature" mostly follows "CO2" ... but neither follow the actual "Proxy
temperature." Conclusion - climate models are failures at predicting
temperature.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GAOdVhCXcAA4WOR?format=png&name=900x900
Fig. 4.5 Temperature and greenhouse gases during the Holocene
The precedence of temperatures is easier to spot if you compare the
variations of temperatures with the variations of CO2 concentrations.

https://tinyurl.com/mw5495bw

Red curve : CO2 variations observed at Mauna Loa observatory
Green curve : "global temperature" variations estimated by the Hadley
Center.
(booth curve smooths, low-pass filtered and put at the same scale).
Paul Aubrin
2023-12-01 14:57:41 UTC
Permalink
Post by Paul Aubrin
Post by AlleyCat
... why don't they match?
This is a graph of past 11,000 years of global proxies.  Notice the
"Model
temperature" mostly follows "CO2" ... but neither follow the actual "Proxy
temperature."  Conclusion - climate models are failures at predicting
temperature.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GAOdVhCXcAA4WOR?format=png&name=900x900
Fig. 4.5 Temperature and greenhouse gases during the Holocene
The precedence of temperatures is easier to spot if you compare the
variations of temperatures with the variations of CO2 concentrations.
https://tinyurl.com/mw5495bw
Red curve : CO2 variations observed at Mauna Loa observatory
Green curve : "global temperature" variations estimated by the Hadley
Center.
(booth curve smooths, low-pass filtered and put at the same scale).
With GISTEMP instead of old CRU temperature estimates.
https://tinyurl.com/2p8t4jxv
AlleyCat
2023-12-01 15:48:49 UTC
Permalink
On Fri, 1 Dec 2023 15:49:52 +0100, Paul Aubrin says...
Post by Paul Aubrin
Post by AlleyCat
... why don't they match?
This is a graph of past 11,000 years of global proxies. Notice the "Model
temperature" mostly follows "CO2" ... but neither follow the actual "Proxy
temperature." Conclusion - climate models are failures at predicting
temperature.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GAOdVhCXcAA4WOR?format=png&name=900x900
Fig. 4.5 Temperature and greenhouse gases during the Holocene
The precedence of temperatures is easier to spot if you compare the
variations of temperatures with the variations of CO2 concentrations.
https://tinyurl.com/mw5495bw
Red curve : CO2 variations observed at Mauna Loa observatory
Green curve : "global temperature" variations estimated by the Hadley
Center.
(booth curve smooths, low-pass filtered and put at the same scale).
CO2 follows temperature. What your graph shows is CO2 following warming. What
your graph DOESN'T show, is the correlation between the Sun and temperatures.

The chicken shit Chicken Littles here will screech, like Al Gore, saying,
"SEEEEE... CO² goes up and then warming comes."

Aaaaahng... WRONG!

CO² is following temperature. The SUN drives warming, JUST as it has in the
past, when there was LOWER CO².

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/F__R455WUAASxbX?format=jpg&name=large

https://player.vimeo.com/video/890331171?&autoplay=1&loop=1

https://video.twimg.com/ext_tw_video/1730607643415232512/pu/vid/avc1/800x480/Jx
w0ZLAjj3viZW0U.mp4?tag=12

https://video.twimg.com/ext_tw_video/1730607968121479168/pu/vid/avc1/800x480/K8
aBdc6crZLQDCsY.mp4?tag=12

============================================================================

Joe Biden Is More Racist Than Republicans

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Beijing." - Joe Biden

Yup... they all look alike, Joe.

Old-Rich-White-Religious Freak, Joe Biden Bragged About His Ability to Work
With Racists

Old-Rich-White-Religious Freak, Joe Biden Brags About a Segregationist Democrat
Not Calling Him "Boy" Like He Did Others

Used Racist Term "Roaches" to Describe Black Kids Who Felt His Hairy Legs

Praised Democrat Segregationist Sen. John Stennis(D) as "Man of Character"

"Segregation Is Good for Black People" - Joe Biden

"(The) Democrat Party Needs More People Like Racist Democrat Governor George
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Gave Speech About What's "Good for the Negro"

"... if you have a problem figuring out whether you're for me or Trump, then
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"If my opponent wins, they're going to put y'all back in chains." - Joe Biden

Funny, since Democrats have been KEEPING Blacks "in chains" for 60 years, and
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Revels, Benjamin S. Turner, Josiah T. Walls, Joseph H. Rainey, Robert C. De
Large, Jefferson H. Long, R. Brown Elliot were ALL Republicans

http://www.wordfoundations.com/wp-
content/uploads/2016/08/First_Colored_Senator_and_Representatives.jpg

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Jungle: Slang term for a city or urban area.

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Only people from India can work at 7-11?

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What... they're not SUPPOSED to be?

"We (Delawareans) were on the South's side in the Civil War." - Joe Biden

"I mean these Shylocks (Jews) who took advantage of, um, these women and men
while overseas." - Joe Biden (Not "racist", per se, but still...)
R Kym Horsell
2023-12-01 20:32:00 UTC
Permalink
Roy Spencer has announced the UAH take on the lower trop temp for Nov
2023 was .91C above the series baseline (approx 1980s avgs).

This marks 5 months in a row the UAH LT has been "much above" prev
record levels (approx 2x in anomaly terms -- .9 vs prev records ~.45
above 1980s) and perhaps underlines it is muchly a measure of
impending El Nino rather than an estimate of surface temperatures.

OTOH most other agencies in the world measuring avg surf temps rather
than air temps also report the same kind of pattern.

According to the update the avg LT from Dec 2022 to Nov 2023 is a new
record with the top10 such 12m periods now looking like:

12m period Avg UAH LT
ending Nov (deg C rel ~1980s)
2023 0.442
2016 0.407
2020 0.385
1998 0.347 <-- warmest El Nino before 21st cent
2019 0.281
2017 0.258
2010 0.194
2022 0.191
2021 0.137
2015 0.120

--
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Paul Aubrin
2023-12-01 20:52:54 UTC
Permalink
Post by R Kym Horsell
Roy Spencer has announced the UAH take on the lower trop temp for Nov
2023 was .91C above the series baseline (approx 1980s avgs).
Hunga-Tonga eruption injected +10% water vapor in the stratosphere. It
causes a +7.54 water vapor forcing (369.3 -> 376.8 W/m²).
284.1 K -> 285.5 K according to my Stefan-Boltzman law calculator, a 1.4
°C increase.

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