2017-09-29 22:32:59 UTC
The Science Is Settled -- Until It's Not
Chimpanzees are our closest living relatives, the science is settled!
If any scientific issue should be "settled" this may be it. Knowledge of
DNA dates to the 1950s and perhaps the 1860s. Researchers mapped our
genetic code in 2003, advances have quickened since.
But the story has a twist. Orangutans actually share more human-like
features and some researchers question the genetic comparison.
Of course, the public never hears "settled science!" about academic
curiosities like human-primate genetics. The refrain, however, is common -
usually joined with copious contempt - about the formerly named
"Anthropogenic Global Warming" (AGW). But despite billions of dollars and
vast attention from scientists, only three AGW premises emerge with
Global temperatures are up slightly, about 0.3 percent or 0.8° C, since
the late 1800s.
During this period, humans have enjoyed unprecedented prosperity fueled
partly by cheap energy. This, in turn, has flooded the atmosphere with
carbon dioxide (CO2).
None of the DIRE predictions about how surplus CO2 would affect the
earth's climate or booming human population has happened.
A couple of examples:
Former NASA scientist James Hansen the "father of climate change" in 2006:
"We have at most ten years - not ten years to decide upon action, but ten
years to alter fundamentally the trajectory of global greenhouse emissions
... We have reached a critical tipping point ... it will soon be
impossible to avoid climate change with far-ranging undesirable
The UN 62nd General assembly in July 2008 estimated there would be between
50 million and 200 million environmental migrants by 2010.
But things are actually dandy. Hurricanes are at their lowest point in
decades. Droughts are practically nonexistent in the U.S. With due respect
to the former president, the oceans did not stop rising with his election,
but the extra CO2 hasn't hastened the rise:
And even Hansen now admits, the period between the last interglacial
period - the period between ice ages - was warmer than today.
Finally, and most vexing to climate scientists, global temperatures have
remained flat for around two decades despite gigatonnes more emitted.
Evidence suggests adding ocean temperatures boosts the trend. But a
University of Virginia scientist posits the dramatic increase in sunbathed
buoys as temperature gauges explains this. Regardless, the "pause" has
vexed scientists trying to explain erroneous models. They have suggested
natural variables including ocean cycles, volcanoes, and solar radiation.
As one leading climate scientists stated regarding natural variability,
"There is no disagreement that there is decadal variability, and that it
is real and needs to be better understood." We can roughly translate this
benign statement into, "We actually don't know how all these natural
factors work together. If we did we wouldn't keep screwing up the models."
In ordinary science this is, well, ordinary. Discovery reveals ignorance
as it accumulates knowledge. As the great philosopher of science, Karl
Popper stated: "The more we learn about the world, and the deeper our
learning, the more conscious, specific, and articulate will be our
knowledge of what we do not know, our knowledge of our ignorance."
AGW of course is not ordinary science. It comes with billions of dollars,
media attention, activist energy, and power over the global economy. These
factors bring out normal human traits of self-interest and the desire for
In extreme form, it ends in calls for criminal prosecutions of
"skeptics." Robert Kennedy Jr. labeled some "war criminals." Bill Nye, an
actor with no scientific background, also suggested jail.
Pointing out the data doesn't match the predictions gets one branded a
"denier" or "anti-science." Calling for civil AGW debate in the New York
Times produces a flood of canceled subscriptions.
This turns science into just another way to score political points or
virtue signal as a recent TV segment exemplified.
In it, Bill Nye and another climate activist squared off with an actual
Princeton scientist who formerly headed research at the Department of
Energy. As the scientist calmly explained facts, Nye exploded:
"Say what you will but you have it absolutely wrong. What happened to that
heat, he's cherry picking a certain model and the heat ended up in the
ocean ... So sir, with some respect, I encourage you to cut this out so
that we can all move forward ... ."
As if to embody the current debate, the moderator concluded the segment by
asking the other activist to explain her "feelings."
Feelings, bullying, and condescension of debatable propositions are the
last refuge of science's scoundrels. And policy consensus will not
accompany slurs and derision. The debate must change.