Discussion:
Wynne's strategy saved some Liberal seats
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M.I.Wakefield
2018-06-10 16:51:02 UTC
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Raw Message
Exit poll suggests Wynne's early concession speech may have saved Liberal
seats

It could have been even worse for the Liberals, according to data collected
by One Persuasion, a Tory-connected firm

http://nationalpost.com/news/politics/exit-poll-suggests-wynnes-early-concession-speech-may-have-saved-liberal-seats

But if most of the votes that ended up going Liberal came from the NDP, how
many seats did Wynne's strategy hand to the PCs?

Here are the seats, and margins, where the PCs beat the NDP by less than 4
points:

Brampton South - 490, 1.30%
Brantford-Brant - 621, 1.09%
Kitchener-Conestoga - 686, 1.60%
Kitchener South-Hespler - 769, 1.81%
Ottawa West-Nepean - 176, 0.34%
Peterborough-Kawartha - 2,194, 3.58%
Sault Ste. Marie - 414, 1.29%
Scarborough-Rouge Park - 963, 2.29%

Of the seats the Wynne saved, only one would have gone NDP, so actual vs.
predicted results:

PC: 76 - 8 to NDP + 3 from Libs = 71 seats
NDP: 40 + 8 from PCs + 1 from Libs = 49 seats
Liberal: 7 - 3 to PCs - 1 to NDP = 3 seats
Green: 1 No change

https://newsinteractives.cbc.ca/onvotes/results/
The Doctor
2018-06-10 18:08:36 UTC
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Raw Message
Post by M.I.Wakefield
Exit poll suggests Wynne's early concession speech may have saved Liberal
seats
It could have been even worse for the Liberals, according to data collected
by One Persuasion, a Tory-connected firm
http://nationalpost.com/news/politics/exit-poll-suggests-wynnes-early-concession-speech-may-have-saved-liberal-seats
But if most of the votes that ended up going Liberal came from the NDP, how
many seats did Wynne's strategy hand to the PCs?
Here are the seats, and margins, where the PCs beat the NDP by less than 4
Brampton South - 490, 1.30%
Brantford-Brant - 621, 1.09%
Kitchener-Conestoga - 686, 1.60%
Kitchener South-Hespler - 769, 1.81%
Ottawa West-Nepean - 176, 0.34%
Peterborough-Kawartha - 2,194, 3.58%
Sault Ste. Marie - 414, 1.29%
Scarborough-Rouge Park - 963, 2.29%
Of the seats the Wynne saved, only one would have gone NDP, so actual vs.
PC: 76 - 8 to NDP + 3 from Libs = 71 seats
NDP: 40 + 8 from PCs + 1 from Libs = 49 seats
Liberal: 7 - 3 to PCs - 1 to NDP = 3 seats
Green: 1 No change
https://newsinteractives.cbc.ca/onvotes/results/
WEll FPTP for you.
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